Risk of Community Transmission of COVID-19 in India: Fact Check

Story:

Risk of Community Transmission of COVID-19 in different states of India as of 22nd June 2020.
Please take care especially the high risk states.

Risk of community transmission in different states of India as of 22nd June 2020. from IndiaSpeaks

Fact Check:

An infographic doing rounds on social media platforms and WhatsApp alleges to show the Risk of Community Transmission of COVID-19 in different states of India as of 22nd June 2020. It appears to show red alert for Telangana and Delhi states with a high risk of 122% and 143% respectively. No, the claims as such are not true and explained here.

Image about Risk of Community Transmission of COVID-19 in India

Not Appropriate Infographic Showing Risk of COVID-19 Community Transmission in India

The infographic calculates the risk of community transmission with the formula 100 x (Total Confirmed – Cured) divided by number of Quarantined. The ‘apparent’ risk of community transmission caused alarm as the number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases post lockdown are increasing in many states of India, including Telangana. However, no health expert of scientific organization suggested the formula to calculate the risk of community transmission of COVID-19. Moreover, the data source mentioned in the infographic – Aarogya Setu app – is not used by everyone.

Telangana’s Health Minister Eatala Rajender’s office issued a statement saying the infographic suggesting 122% risk of community transmission in the state is ‘fake’. They denied Telangana was at high risk of community transmission of COVID-19. The statement also clarified the formula behind the infographic is the creation of a private person, not a doctor or an expert. The statement further mentions the formula assumes only 2,933 people are quarantined in Telangana, when the real number is several times more.

Source of the Infographic Map

Facebook page India in Pixels shared the Infographic map on 22nd June 2020. After the community transmission claims became viral, the Facebook page added a clarifying edit message to the post. It mentioned they were only comparing the number of quarantined people with active cases. They also did not claim anything on the spread. A value above 100 means there are more people active than people quarantined. It only means they need to increase the quarantining of people.

So, the messages warning Telangana, Delhi and other Indian states are at high risk of COVID-19 community transmission aren’t true. The infographic is indeed a misinterpretation coming from improper data calculation.